| World
What Will Happen at the End of the American Century?
As US hegemony fades from the world stage, many old conflicts previously kept under wraps threaten to reemerge.
By William Bishop, March 11, 2021
Title Image: Flickr
Since its introduction to world politics in the 1940’s, the United States has risen to become the sole hegemon of the current order of trade and alliances. This time of dominance has been dubbed by many as “The American Century.” With increasing competition from other powers and the decline of the old order, however, it is coming to an end.
With its death, the US is lowering its entanglement in foreign affairs, which will result in great instability in the surrounding regions it pulls out of. Many ethic and political clashes halted by the American system system will be reignited, possibly spilling over across the world. The following stories are a glimpse of what could possibly happen after the end of the American Century:
Since the end of WWII, there has been a population explosion across the globe accompanied by a major expansion of urban environments. This increase has led to populations requiring more natural supplies of food and water. Of these, it is water that will likely be the cause of many conflicts across the globe following the withdrawal of American assets abroad.
One of these conflicts is the Egyptian-Ethiopian water crisis. The nation of Ethiopia has begun construction on a large Dam across the Nile river called “The Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam”. Currently, it is the largest hydroelectric project ever attempted in Africa, and would put control of the Nile’s freshwater in the hands of Ethiopia.
The Nile river is the source of all of Egypt’s freshwater, and is the main location for nearly all of the country’s agriculture. To say that Egypt is dependent on the Nile would be an understatement; it is their livelihood. As an increasingly absent US could potentially destabilize great parts of the region, the crisis could escalate into a large, protracted northeastern war across the whole region.
As it nears completion, the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam is bound to cause more conflict. Adwa Pictures
Another major crisis that could explode into a full war in the coming years is the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict in the Caucasus. South of Russia, the area is home to the mountain countries of Georgia, Armenia, and Azerbaijan. Armenia and Azerbaijan are both embroiled in and ethic conflict over the disputed province of Nagorno-Karabakh.
The province is claimed by both governments for housing large minorities of ethnic Armenians and Azerbaijani, and there have been wars on and off since each nation’s respective independence. After annexation by the Soviet Union and the American enforcement of peace following the end of the Cold War, though, the area saw some peace.
Conflict sporadically continued even up to modern times, with military skirmishes occurring in September of 2020 resulting in an Armenian victory, but the region has mostly seen unprecedented peace. As the region destabilizes, and Russia increasingly intervenes in the situation, this ethnic conflict could soon turn bloody.
One more potentially gigantic conflict to spark from the absence of America is the South China Sea dispute. In ancient times, China was the dominant power in the region, and it used its navy to control the region and secure its trade routes. At first, European impact in the region was limited to trade routes. As the power of Europe grew to be greater than that of China after the Industrial Revolution, however, Europeans dominated and exploited China for its resources in a period of time aptly dubbed by the Chinese as the “Century of National Humiliation.”
Following its resurgence during the modern era, China has been actively attempting to overtake the United States as the global superpower and reassert their territorial claims across Asia to their old extents. One of the ways they have been doing so has been by creating and claiming artificial islands in the South China Sea.
There are many islands in the region claimed by many nearby countries, such as Vietnam, Cambodia, Thailand, Indonesia, Brunei, the Philippines, and Taiwan. All of these claim sovereignty over a large part of the area, but China has been disregarding those claims and taking land for themselves and creating tension along the way.
To rebuke these claims, the US navy regularly sails through these waters in defiance of China. When America retreats, China will become emboldened in expanding its control over the area.
One other conflict in the region is between The Republic of China (Taiwan) and The People’s Republic of China (PRC). Taiwan is the home to the remnants of the Kuomintang, the nationalist government from the civil war which was forced to flee to the island.
China has made great efforts to expand its naval presence in the South China Sea to reinforce their claims. Guang Niu / Getty Images
While Taiwan still claims all of the PRC-controlled China as its territory, the PRC claims Taiwan as a province of China and has threatened to go to war with the island should they declare their formal independence from China. One of the major reasons for their continued existence is protection from American military forces. Should the US retreat from the world stage, a conflict in the area could begin with China seeking to assert full military control over the island and integrate it with the mainland.
A final major conflict could be the resurgence of the Korean War. The Korean Peninsula is divided between the two states of North and South Korea, with both states being supported respectively by the United States and the Chinese government.
One of the only reasons the war hasn’t restarted has been the presence of large quantities of United States troops in South Korea, which help guard South Korea. An American withdrawal makes the likelihood of conflict with North Korea higher. With China possibly joining with the North Koreans in their invasion and Japan assisting South Korea, this could spark a new devastating East Asian war.
Regardless of how one might feel about it, the end of the American century is nigh, and many conflicts are already starting to boil over. The further withdrawal from the position of global supremacy to focus more on domestic matters will almost inevitably lead to the resurgence of a large amount of military conflict. One thing is for sure, and that’s that things are likely to get much more interesting before they settle down.